CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2015-12-16T09:36:00-CME-001)

NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a3b1f
WSA version: 2.2
(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)

Please enter the full notification:
## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2015-12-16T21:07:00Z
## Message ID: 20151216-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

Update on CMEs with ID(s) 2015-12-16T09:36:00-CME-001 and 2015-12-16T14:48:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20151216-AL-001).  Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2015-12-19T01:17Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
  

Updated CME parameters are (event upgraded/downgraded to C-type):

1: Start time of the event: 2015-12-16T09:36Z.

Estimated speed: ~650 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -30/12 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).

Activity ID: 2015-12-16T09:36:00-CME-001


2: Start time of the event: 2015-12-16T14:48Z.

Estimated speed: ~580 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -9/-8 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2015-12-16T14:48:00-CME-001


Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2015-12-16T09:36:00-CME-001, 2015-12-16T14:48:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151216_153000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151216_153000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151216_153000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151216_153000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151216_153000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151216_153000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif


## Notes:

This CME event (2015-12-16T09:36:00-CME-001) is associated with C6.6 flare with ID 2015-12-16T08:34:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2015-12-16T09:03Z.

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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